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Winchester faces wind gusts of up to 50 mph and more than 4 inches of rain between Friday and Monday as an early-season nor'easter moves up the East Coast, according to the National Weather Service.
The weather service on Thursday at 1:46 p.m. issued a wind advisory for southeastern Middlesex County, which includes Winchester. It runs from 8 a.m. Friday to 2 a.m. Sunday. Forecasters expect northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph, with gusts of 35 to 50 mph.
Winchester sits a step back from the worst of it. Coastal communities from Essex County to the islands are under a stronger high wind warning, with gusts of 45 to 60 mph, along with coastal flood and high surf alerts that do not extend inland.
When the wind arrives
The weather service's forecast for Winchester calls for rain to begin after 3 p.m. Friday, with gusts as high as 39 mph. The wind picks up overnight, with gusts to 48 mph Friday night and up to 49 mph on Saturday.
Gusts ease to the upper 30s on Sunday. Rain gives way to showers and possible thunderstorms Sunday night.
Trees still in full leaf
The timing makes the wind more dangerous than its numbers suggest. The advisory warns that tree limbs could come down and a few power outages may result. It also says the long stretch of wind, heavy rain and fully leafed trees could make tree damage and outages worse.
The weather service urged residents to secure outdoor furniture, trash barrels and other loose objects before Friday morning. Residents can track outages on the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency's real-time power outage viewer.
Rain is the bigger number for Winchester. The weather service's hourly forecast data for the town adds up to about 4.2 inches from Friday through Monday, with the heaviest rain on Saturday and Sunday.
The storm arrives after a mostly dry week. The Aberjona River, which runs through the center of town to the Mystic Lakes, was flowing at about 6 cubic feet per second Thursday afternoon, according to the U.S. Geological Survey gauge in Winchester.
Some forecasters expect the storm to be more of a weekend annoyance than a serious threat for communities well away from the coast. That outlook depends on the storm's track, which remains the largest unknown. Some computer models show the storm looping back to the west, which would push heavier rain farther inland, The New York Times reported.
Slow to leave
The rain does not let up quickly. The forecast calls for rain showers to linger into Monday, with a chance of showers continuing Monday night.
Meteorologists told The Times that a developing El Niño pattern is likely to push several more storms along the same path up the East Coast in the coming months.
Will Dowd is a Massachusetts journalist who covers municipal government and community life for Winchester News. He is also the founder and editor of The Marblehead Independent, a reader-funded digital newsroom.
