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Winchester is under a wind advisory through early Sunday, and forecasters expect close to 4 inches of rain by Monday night as a slow-moving nor'easter settles over southern New England, according to the National Weather Service.
The weather service updated the advisory at 12:30 p.m. Friday for central and southeastern Middlesex County, which includes Winchester. It now calls for northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph, up from the 35 to 50 mph forecast Thursday. The advisory runs until 8 a.m. Sunday.
Winchester sits outside the storm's worst zone. The coast from Essex County to the islands is under a high wind warning, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph, along with coastal flood and high surf alerts that do not reach inland towns.
Wind peaks Saturday night
The weather service's forecast for Winchester calls for gusts up to 33 mph Friday night, 44 mph on Saturday and 45 mph Saturday night, with the strongest gusts expected around 2 a.m. Sunday. Gusts ease to 40 mph Sunday and drop below 30 mph by Monday.
The advisory warns that tree limbs could come down and a few power outages may result. Forecasters said the long stretch of wind, heavy rain and trees still in full leaf could make the damage worse than the gust numbers alone suggest. They also warned that the wind will make driving difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.
In a Friday afternoon discussion, forecasters said the storm's track had shifted southwest over the past day, pulling the strongest winds farther west. For inland areas, they expect gusts of 35 to 50 mph, with the strongest likely in Connecticut, closer to the storm's center.
Rain adds up
Rain is the bigger number for Winchester. The town's forecast calls for rain to arrive in earnest Saturday, with half to three-quarters of an inch during the day and the same again Saturday night. Another three-quarters of an inch to 1 inch is forecast for Sunday, and rain continues through Monday.
Added together, the weather service's hourly forecast for the town comes to about 3.9 inches from Friday evening through Monday night.
Forecasters expect 2 to 4 inches across the region, with isolated totals of 5 to 6 inches possible, most likely near the coast and in the Worcester Hills. They flagged flooding on urban streets with poor drainage as a likely impact. They did not issue a flood watch because the rain is spread over several days, but said they will keep an eye on whether the heavier totals concentrate in one area.
The Aberjona River was flowing at about 5 cubic feet per second Friday evening, slightly lower than Thursday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey gauge in Winchester.
The storm is expected to weaken slowly early next week. Rain should end Monday evening and turn to showers overnight. The forecast for Tuesday calls for a chance of showers before 3 p.m. and a high near 67.
Forecasters said Tuesday should be the last wet, unsettled day before a warmer, drier stretch arrives later in the week.
Will Dowd is a Massachusetts journalist who covers municipal government and community life for Winchester News. He is also the founder and editor of The Marblehead Independent, a reader-funded digital newsroom.
